(New York’s annual garbage haul?7.8 million tons per year. “I’m an American in Canada, and after every election, everyone says ‘I’m moving to Canada’, but they don’t,” Saideman says. “Given the sheer scale of Hispanic populations in California and the role of agriculture there, I can’t imagine that California would not wish to develop a new policy on the question of welcoming people from Central America and elsewhere,” O’Leary says. But actually secession is obviously more complicated. What if the internet stopped working for one day? Well, eventually you loathe the idea of driving anywhere. 2011-06-18 03:42:45 2011-06-18 03:42:45. Top Answer. Its accumulated advantages are decades and even centuries old, whether it’s from higher education, the military industrial complex that birthed Silicon Valley, that coastline I mentioned, or even just the nice weather. Twice. California may have the size and economy and independent spirit of a good-sized country. California is the only thing keeping the Democratic Party relevant on the national scale. California boasts more than30 military bases—not including lesser facilities—with almost 200,000 active duty personnel.This is a particular issue for San Diego, given theenormous military presence there. • How Western civilisation could collapse • What if the internet stopped working for one day? to find out more, read our. Secession is extremely improbable. Where are you going to put that when you can’t even find a parking space in Queens?). Southern California might look favourably on immigration – but the north may not (Credit: Getty), On the other hand, while highly diverse southern California might look favourably on immigration, much more conservative northern California could be staunchly opposed. Local News. Voters In 2021 Could Decide If California Becomes Its Own … Republicans will control Washington forever. In response to the red wave, remaining US Democratic representatives would likely shift their politics to the right. California, on the other hand, would become an attractive new ally for those and other liberal countries. Brexit and the Trump presidency were both thought to be impossible, but they were proven to simply have been improbable. He has appeared in, 3 Ways to support the American Conservative, We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. “Republicans might actually say ‘good riddance’, whereas Democrats might say ‘we’ve gotta keep California or we might be marginalised forever’,” he says. Any statistician or economist will tell you there is a huge world of difference between the improbable and the impossible. Moreover, its agricultural base could sustain the state by itself. “Polarisation in Congress is at levels we have not seen in more than 100 years.”. For Democrats, the most optimistic outcome for a US without California, he continues, would be a more centrist political arena – one akin to the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961), when bipartisan consensus allowed for major undertakings like the construction of the interstate highway system. A constitutional law denies states the right to secession, and there’s scant evidence that the majority of California’s citizens actually want to leave. And for how long? To be clear, unless something drastically changes, California is not going to secede any time soon. Then we have a favour to ask. By contrast, in 1994 those figures were just 64% and 70%, respectively. In Houston, by contrast, this same family will still have over $3,500 per month left over after paying for taxes and the bare necessities. In 1993, in what is known as the Velvet Divorce, the Czech Republic split from Slovakia with no resulting bloodshed. This is a particular issue for San Diego, given the, lowest rates for providing military enlistees. The north-east, for example, would become increasingly alienated in a Republican-dominated country with no hope of winning political representation. and how possible is it that 2/3 house of representatives and the senate vote for this? not including lesser facilities—with almost 200,000 active duty personnel. The great irony of Cal-exit is that these people’s solution to Trump’s imposing a political border (between the U.S. and Mexico) is to create … another political border. Join 900,000+ Future fans by liking us on Facebook, or follow us on Twitter or Instagram. We just used a gender-specific term to describe association. Read about our approach to external linking. California. California. California’s secession might, however, trigger a snowballing of similar initiatives in other parts of the US. One might say passage of a secession referendum–even secession itself–might be. And they don’t like Trump. California has more lawyers than it could possibly need, and that means they need people to sue to stay in business. 2.) “We have to go back historically, to something like the 1890s post-Civil War period, to find politics in the US that are anywhere near as bitterly polarised as we have now,” says Bernard Grofman, a political scientist at the University of California, Irvine. 3.) The newly divided US would lose international footing and become more beholden to its allies, and some long-standing friendships would be tested. The American Conservative exists to advance a Main Street conservatism. Were California to kick the few remaining grown-ups out of the room, there would be no one left to keep the state on track. The system’s … Though economists have shown time and time again that growth creates positive-sum benefits, Californians, with their newly established borders, also may fall subject to an erroneous us-versus-them mentality. Though they may not realize it, California benefits enormously from its membership in our fraternity of states. Find right answers right now! “Consumers would directly benefit if California contracted on its own to manufacture much-needed generic medications like insulin — a drug that … See, California isn’t like New York City, which—while it’s the economic and cultural center of basically the world—realizes that it needs the rest of the country for food, water, power, and a place to send its garbage. California has big problems, including soaring taxes, stratospheric home prices and too many regulations. Without influence in D.C., California will have to renegotiate its benefits from the federal government, notably for the military that protects it. Moreover, its agricultural base could sustain the state by itself. “It’s not inevitable that California is liberal.”, Grofman adds that, as humans, we are naturally inclined to view the world as a zero-sum game. At that point, other states – many of which have the economic capacity and population size to become small countries of their own – may see little incentive to stick around. California could also be more attractive than the US to immigrants. Christina Dagle and 4-year-old daughter Eleanor wait in line six feet apart from others to buy flowers in Seal Beach last week. Independence Grade: A+++ I mean, who's surprised here? One unexpected financial shock, and they are underwater. Mark Levin appeared at the Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California on Saturday night. Pop icon Cher said Sunday that Los Angeles, California, “can’t take care of its own” residents, much less newly arrived illegal and legal immigrants. Boom. (The coronavirus bug can apparently survive on steel for up to 72 hours.) California was already short on hospital beds before the pandemic, and I.C.U. Wiki User Answered . Accordingly, California set its initial retirement age for state workers (and, beginning in 1939, for local-government employees) at 65, at a time when the average 20-year-old entering the workforce could expect to live for another 46 years, until 66. You could survive in California for 5-10 years! Warm sun, nice beaches, and good food. As a member of the California Freedom Coalition recently told the Sacramento Bee, collecting signatures for the 2018 ballot, “We feel like this current initiative is more feasible and will hold up more to scrutiny and legal challenges.”. Definitions. History has seen such dynamics play out. What's not to love? The term “Golden State” is probably more accurate today than it was during the gold rush. Therefore, states stretching north from Maryland to Maine and west to Pennsylvania may see secession as the only means of escaping a permanent Republican majority. Can California survive as its own country? (Check out Bloomberg’s “California’s Drought In Two Terrifying Charts.”) The reason that they canget so much water from the Colorado River is the California delegation can overwhelm all the other Western states in Congress. California would seem a paradise to you at first. California. the rich would leave and then they would lose probably 50% of their income taxes. Not all secessions are war-torn – the Czech Republic split peaceably from Slovakia in 1992, and continue to have close diplomatic relations today (Credit: Getty). It only takes a minute and helps support original, in-depth journalism. In Houston, by contrast, this same family will still have over $3,500 per month left over after paying for taxes and the bare necessities. California this week declared its independence from the federal government’s feeble efforts to fight Covid-19 — and perhaps from a bit more. Good Day Sacramento. As Grofman says, “In a world in which California seceded, the most pessimistic scenario is further breakup of the US.”. Note this election night infographic from, There is little love for hallowed First Amendment freedoms—except the right to protest, obviously—so don’t expect a freedom of speech, religion, or even the press in New California. Answer. California is the largest state in the union by population, and its exit would radically shift the political playing field in the US. It would depend entirely on the form of government it would assume, and my guess is that it would tie in even closer to Mexico. But its most serious problem may be that people are leaving the state in droves. It also contributes more tax revenue to the US federal government than any other state, subsidising “all sorts of Republican states, for which it simply receives abuse in return”, O’Leary says. “The standard rule about immigration is that whoever is already there decides that the best thing that could possibly happen is to put up barriers to anyone else coming in,” Grofman says. Coronavirus. (Oh! California is the only thing keeping the Democratic Party relevant on the national scale. Americans have grown increasingly polarised in recent years. “People tend to believe that adding new people will simply divide the pie in more ways,” he says. Even before that happens, however, California’s state legislature has approve secession, which may not be as easy as the ballot initiative that started it all. In Houston, by contrast, this same family will still have over $3,500 per month left over after paying for taxes and the bare necessities. The newly formed country would almost certainly continue to welcome overseas innovators to Silicon Valley and its space agency, but it might also relax policies for less skilled workers as well. Jared Whitley is political writer who served as press liaison for Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), associate director in the White House under George W. Bush, and has worked in the defense industry. “In this hypothetical situation, you can imagine folks in the north-east thinking that if D.C. allowed California to go scot-free, it would probably let them go, too,” says Saideman. California is far from the first to attempt to secede from its larger whole. Yet exploring what would happen should this improbable event come to pass is still worthwhile for the questions it raises about the precarious balance of power – and politics – in the US. The fastest lesson I learned in California was it’s very expensive to live here. Let that sink in. Possibily. A family of four can barely survive in California on a household income of $100,000 per year. Pakistan responded with genocide and mass rape when Bangladesh decided to become a separate nation in 1971, while Eritrea’s War of Independence from Ethiopia dragged on for 30 years. Well yeah California COULD function on its own, but not sure why it should. California leaves, and when it does, expect the following five things to happen quickly: There have long been plans to divide California in two. This story was originally produced and published by Zocalo Public Square. So would those with Mexico as the increasingly right-wing US government shifted toward harder-line immigration policies. See all the best places to live in California. Unless something drastically changes, California is not going to secede any time soon (Credit: Getty). If one were to measure the odds, it would be very easy to conclude that chance of some disaster befalling you is fairly high (increasing in direct proportion to the duration of your stay). New technology can make firefighting efforts more effective “California has battled some of its biggest wildfires this year with a new weapon: a plane outfitted with infrared sensors that can see through smoke to plot the blazes’ perimeters and transmit the coordinates to firefighters in real-time.” — Erin Ailworth, Wall Street Journal And whenever I see an article about the move for California to secede from the United States (the so-called “Cal-exit”), the more I think that a vote to split is, rather than improbable. Those rights get in the way of thought-policing and lawsuits. The second proposal, the Quebec referendum, was voted on in … . One might say passage of a secession referendum–even secession itself–might be improbable, rather than impossible, too. California made the top of our list by meeting almost all of our criteria. it would have to raise taxes in order to purchase water from the US. Can the coronavirus live on clothes and shoes? To drop bombs, nuclear or otherwise, on any enemies, Texas makes its own fighter jets: Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) assembles the F-16, the backbone of … 4.) Though they may not realize it, California benefits enormously from its membership in our fraternity of states. With the US leaning more strongly to the right, nations also run by right-leaning parties, such as Hungary and Russia, might become closer to the US. “If California seceded there would be some flow, but it wouldn’t be as dramatic as people think, and most of it would be driven by jobs.”, A Californian secession could cause a snowball effect (Credit: Getty). There’s no guarantee that an independent California would be an exception. As California vied for a high standing in the international community, it would likely take a lead on key issues such as mitigating global warming. It would be very difficult to imagine generals obeying orders to occupy California by force (Credit: Getty), “Californians are not akin to the Kurds in Iraq, the Catalans in Spain or even the Scots and Irish in the UK,” says Brendan O’Leary, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania. That would get us imprisoned in New California.) “If you no longer have California anchoring the Democratic Party positions, then that dramatically changes the center of gravity,” Grofman says. The balance of power in Congress would tip toward complete Republican control. If you liked this story, sign up for the weekly bbc.com features newsletter, called “If You Only Read 6 Things This Week”. “They’ve depended on California since the early 1990s for having a chance to win presidential elections.”. Also contrary to what many might assume, California’s secession probably wouldn’t kick off a sudden mass immigration of US liberals into California and an exodus of Republicans out. Bay Area millionaires and billionaires may pretend to still be 1960s liberals, but in practice they follow the legacy of Ayn Rand, not Haight-Ashbury. Most importantly, without the California Congressional caucus in Washington, the Republican edge in the House of Representatives, . Geographically, it looks like about half of California is red. No matter what, though, the US would not escape unscathed. Republicans have won every run-off race in 2017 and, Trump would have won the popular vote by almost 1.5 million, . It’s enormous in terms of geography, population, economy, and very importantly coastline. States such as Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova only seceded from the Soviet Union after the Baltic states led the way. I am not sure what the going rate is for leasing battleships, but I’m going to bet the price would be high. Without influence in D.C., California will have to renegotiate its benefits from the federal government, notably for the military that protects it. With California would go its economy – including $266 billion a year in revenue for Apple alone (Credit: Getty). You might also like:• What if all guns disappeared? But relations between the US and Canada – which are generally better when both nations’ leaders sit on the same side of the political spectrum – would fray. No matter how US politics shook out, however, losing California would deliver a significant economic blow to the newly diminished nation. Republicans have won every run-off race in 2017 andjust picked up another governor. The event was a celebration of his new, bestselling book, Unfreedom of the Press.It was a glorious evening. “Politically, this would put Democrats in a deep, deep hole,” Saideman says. We cherish local community, the liberties bequeathed us by the Founders, the civilizational foundations of faith and family, and—we are not ashamed to use the word—peace. Civil war did break out, leading to the loss of some 620,000 American lives and shaking the country to its core. A handpicked selection of stories from BBC Future, Culture, Capital, and Travel, delivered to your inbox every Friday. Yes, it’s understandable why, with the election of an evil white supremacist swindler as president of the United States, the idea of … The Democratic Party is in shambles. Which is precisely why it would be so self-destructive to seek to become one. Brexit and the Trump presidency were both thought to be impossible, but they were proven to simply have been improbable. Some scholars argue that ideological tensions have never been greater in living memory. Getting Cal-exit on the 2018 ballot is going to happen. Thank you! 5.) See, California isn’t like New York City, which—while it’s the economic and cultural center of basically the world—realizes that it needs the rest of the country for food, water, power, and a place to send its garbage. We wonder what loss of that land mass would do to the state’s self-sustaining agriculture…? Those rights get in the way of thought-policing and lawsuits. One unexpected financial shock, and they are underwater. Yes it has a high probability. “California’s much more serious efforts to reduce the pace of climate change would be undone by the rest of the US,” Saideman says. There have long been plans to divide California in two, a la Virginia, and even an ambitious planto divide it into six parts. “In other words, anything you get, I lose.”. There is little love for hallowed First Amendment freedoms—except the right to protest, obviously—so don’t expect a freedom of speech, religion, or even the press in New California. 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